What’s in Store for New Zealand’s Jobs Market in 2025?

Published Date: 2nd April 2025

In 2025, New Zealand employers are keeping their heads held high while battling budget pressures and the challenges of an uncertain economy. Although the New Zealand jobs market is becoming increasingly complex, organisations remain resilient. With a short window before talent shortages return, employers will gain advantages by planning ahead.

In our latest webinar, our Chief Executive, Liza Viz, covers highlights of our Beyond Recruitment Economic & Labour Report 2025, and economist Shamubeel Eaqub provides insights into the current economic climate.

Here are highlights of our findings, covering the factors that influence opportunities and challenges for organisations in Aotearoa. Let’s take a look at how 2025 is shaping up.

The Outlook for New Zealand’s Economy

Beyond Recruitment’s survey is a window to confidence and sentiment amongst New Zealand’s hiring decision-makers. In every survey, we ask respondents whether this year felt easier or harder than the last. While 58% of respondents found this year tougher, this is an improvement from over 70% in 2022 and 2023.

Despite the pressures bearing on the New Zealand economy, 85% of organisations told us they remain at least slightly confident – down from 95% in 2023, but well above the 2019–2022 average of 65%. Smaller and mid-sized businesses showed more optimism and perhaps resilience than the largest enterprises.

Overall, we may be near the bottom of the economic downturn in 2025. Inflation is still high, but price increases are slowing. Falling interest rates will provide more breathing room, at least over the coming year. With rates easing and banks more willing to lend, a renewed appetite for spending and borrowing will lift both consumer spending and investment. These are key drivers of New Zealand’s economic recovery, offering a more optimistic outlook for the next 12 months, says Shamubeel.

A New Era of Global Uncertainty & Volatility

In our 2025 survey, 14% of organisations cited the geopolitical climate as a barrier to organisational success, reflecting a growing recognition of how political factors are influencing operational reality.

With the international political order led by the United States undergoing a rearrangement, the future isn’t easy to predict on the political front. But there is sure to be growing policy uncertainty at national level, Shamubeel says, which will impact employers in multiple ways.

As the political centre is fracturing, there is little to hold policy steady, which in turn will see a rise in short-term governments that attempt to fast-track policies, only to see them overturned by the succeeding government. “So, just because [a policy] is being implemented today, doesn't mean it will be still there in three or four years’ time,” he adds.

Talent Shortages will make a Comeback

Sure, talent may seem relatively available and affordable right now. But employers shouldn’t be complacent about securing the skills they need. Compared to previous economic downturns, however, unemployment remains low, while workforce participation is near record highs, and emigration has surged – all factors which are diminishing the availability of skills.

“The peak in unemployment in every economic cycle is gradually getting smaller and smaller. That's because businesses are afraid of letting go of staff that they had great difficulty in recruiting and getting embedded into their workforces – and you can see that turning up in the data,” Shamubeel says. As our survey found, 35% of employers are reducing their costs but are not planning to make staff redundant.

In a future where government investment in training and skills may be decreasing, employers will need to look for other levers they can pull – building, borrowing or buying – to access the skills and capabilities they need for their workforce.

To stay competitive in the economic recovery, organisations must be proactive now in attracting and retaining talent.

Access more Insights into New Zealand Jobs & Hiring

This is just a partial recap of the insights uncovered in our report and webinar. To access the full range of economic and employment market intelligence to help your organisation plan ahead, sign up for a free copy of the report here and check out the webinar linked below.

See how Aotearoa businesses are tackling the most critical factors in the workforce, including salary trends, hybrid working, skills development, and more – request your free copy now!

For more insights tailored to your organisation, support in hiring for your team, or making your next career move in the current New Zealand jobs market, the team at Beyond Recruitment is here to help. Please feel free to contact us to learn more about how we can assist you.